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I think Hardy has Aldrich covered here and I expect her to win. Her movement and activity on the feet is a bit better, and she has more physicality and strength in the wrestling and clinch.
Aldrich won’t have the volume to make Hardy uncomfortable, and I think she’s going to look a half step behind through most of the fight.
It’s women’s MMA so who knows what the judges will do in a close fight, so the best bet in this one is to take it to go the distance. Both fighters have good cardio and defense so I don’t see a finish happening.
Kevin Jousset -238 v Jared Gooden +195
I’m not high on either of these guys, but I would say Jousset has the higher ceiling. Gooden isn’t crisp on the feet and his wrestling game isn’t very good, and even though he’s coming off an ITD win, it was against Wellington Turman, and it wasn’t great.
Jousset’s problem is his lack of volume on the feet. It’s like he thinks too much before striking, and I wish he would throw more because he’s good at maintaining range and his accuracy is good, but his lack of volume gives opponents a lot of chances to strike against him.
Jousset should win this fight as I think he’ll do more damage, but I can’t bet on this fight because the lack of volume concerns me.
Jake Hadley -175 v Charles Johnson +145
I think this is a great spot to fade Charles Johnson after he got the win against Maksum, and Hadley is coming off a loss in a great fight against Cody Durden. Hadley’s ground game will be the difference here as I think it’s even on the feet.
Johnson is great at defending on the ground, but he doesn’t have offense and Hadley’s ground game is creative and effective.
Johnson will need to keep this on the feet in order to win rounds, but Hadley’s takedown game should be good enough for him to control where this fight takes place. I like this fight to go the distance as both guys have great cardio and great defense.
Trey Waters -170 v Billy Goff +142
Goff is an exciting fighter with tons of forward pressure and volume, but he’s like a frat guy at a party that goes too hard too early. It’s worked against the weak competition he’s faced so far, but I think it’s going to backfire in this one.
Waters had a really good UFC debut against Josh Quinlan, and his cardio and jabs that he showed against Quinlan will work great against Goff. Goff will be too wild at first, and if he doesn’t get the finish he’ll tire out and Waters will be able to land strikes from distance.
This fight will expose the lack of patience from Goff, and long-term it will be a good thing for him, but Waters should get the win here.
Tabatha Ricci -130 v Tecia Torres +110
We have a fade-the-baby theory here as Tecia Torres gave birth last June, and this is her first fight back. She hasn’t fought in 2 years, and she hasn’t won in 3 years so it’s going to be hard to make the case to bet on her…so I won’t.
Ricci has been the more active fighter, and she’s coming off a really tough split-decision loss to Loopy Godinez that could have easily gone her way. Torres had decent cardio before the layoff, but I can’t see it being as good, and the same can be said for her striking.
I think Ricci has more volume on the feet in this one and shows more activity, and I’m always going to be betting on the fade-the-baby theory. Ricci is the play.
Esteban Ribovics -185 v Terrance McKinney +154
It’s a Terrance McKinney fight so take the under. He’s never been to decision in 21 pro fights so I don’t see why it would change here. As for who will win this fight, I can’t believe Ribovics is this big of a favorite. He’s not that good of a UFC fighter despite his 12-1 record.
He lost his UFC debut, and he beat Kamuela Kirk in his last fight, and Kirk is awful. His striking doesn’t scare anyone, and he’s not great on the ground either.
Kirk got him on the ground in round one and kept him there the entire time, and the only reason Ribovics won that fight was because Kirk got tired. McKinney will absolutely get tired if he doesn’t finish Ribovics early, but I think playing McKinney ITD is worth the play.
We know McKinney has never been to a decision, and with how hittable Ribovics looked on the feet, and how bad he was on the ground I see paths to victory for McKinney. Take him to win, and if he doesn’t get the early finish, and you see him starting to get tired, live bet Ribovics.
Viacheslav Borshchev -170 v Chase Hooper +142
Hooper is a live dog here as Borshchev has a massive hole in his game, and that’s the takedown and ground defense.
If Hooper can get it on the ground, it’s Hooper all day, and he probably gets a submission. The move to Lightweight looks like it’s working great for Hooper as he doesn’t have to do the tough weight cut anymore, and it looks like he has more power on the feet.
His striking isn’t nearly as good as Borshchev’s so if this fight takes place on the feet, Borshchev will have the massive advantage and is live for a knockout.
However, I like Hooper as the underdog. I think he can survive the striking, and get this fight to the mat where he will dominate.
Robelis Despaigne -166 v Waldo Cotes-Acosta +140
I’ll just keep fading Despaigne. He’s extremely powerful but very inexperienced, and his fights haven’t lasted long at all, and they’ve been against bad competition.
If you’re going to bet Despaigne, just wait and take him to win by KO, but I’ll take the plus money on Acosta.
He’s shown good cardio, and all he has to do is survive the first-round onslaught, and he’ll tire out Despaigne, and maybe even get the finish if Despaigne’s cardio falls off. Take unders in this fight as parlay pieces, but the play is Cortes-Acosta at plus money.
Sean Woodson -185 v Alex Caceres +154
I’ll make this short as these are two guys I don’t like betting on so I won’t bet anything on this fight. Both guys are strikers, but they can be low volume, and unpredictable.
I’m not a fan of either of them so this is a pass from a betting perspective.
Mateusz Rebecki -298 v Diego Ferreira +240
Ferreira hadn’t fought a year and a half, and he knocked out Michael Johnson in his return, but I don’t think this fight is going to go well for him, as it’s a terrible matchup for him.
Rebecki pushes forward to setup the takedown, and he’s a mauler who doesn’t stop until he gets the takedown.
Once on top, it’s relentless pressure, wresting and ground and pound, and last fight he was able to get the armbar submission against Roberts. Ferreira will need this to stay on the feet to have a chance, but I don’t think he can stop the takedown, and once on the ground it’s Rebecki’s world.
Carlos Ulberg -218 v Alonzo Menifield +180
I’ve been betting on Ulberg in every fight, and I’ll do it again here. His striking gets better and better each fight, and I don’t think Menifield has the tools to beat him.
His last fight against Dustin Jacoby was not very good as he really got beat up on the feet, and he looked slow, and somehow got the win. His wrestling was ineffective, and he’ll have to be better to beat Ulberg.
Ulberg’s striking is very precise and powerful, and he’s going to be quicker on the feet, and he’ll do more damage with his striking than Menifield will. I haven’t been wrong on an Ulberg fight, and I’ll be betting on him in this one.
Joaquin Buckley -155 v Nursulton Ruziboev +130
I’m not going to fade Buckley anytime soon. His move to welterweight has been fantastic as he’s 3-0, and coming off a very impressive win against Luque.
He’ll be a bit smaller than Ruziboev, but his athleticism and pressure will more than make up for it. Ruziboev is coming off a bizarre win against Dumas, and I’m not impressed by his striking, and I don’t think Buckley will be either.
Ruziboev should have an advantage on the ground, but I don’t know if he can get it there. Buckley is on a tear right now, and I think his power will be too much for Ruziboev to handle. It’s a massive step up in competition for Ruziboev, and I think the -155 price is more than fair.
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Derrick Lewis -185 vs Rodrigo Nascimento +140
I’m not interested in betting this fight as I don’t think anyone is going to be confident in betting on either guy. Derrick Lewis is 1-4 in his last 5 fights with his win being a flying knee 30 seconds into the fight.
He’s terrible on the ground, and he doesn’t really have t
